According to the cartel, demand may reach 100.6 million b/d.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has maintained its forecast for oil demand growth in 2022 at 4.2 million barrels per day (b/d). Oil consumption in the world may exceed the pre-crisis figure, as follows from the November OPEC report.
According to the cartel, the demand for oil in 2022 may reach 100.6 million b/d, which is 0.5 million b/d above the level of 2019. It is expected that oil consumption will go at a slightly faster pace in the European countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), but this will be offset by the slower pace of demand in the American OECD countries, the report says.
Global oil demand in 2021 will grow by 5.7 million b/d, this estimate is lowered by 160 thousand b/d compared to the previous one.
The deterioration in the forecast is explained by “slower than expected consumption rates in China and India in the third quarter of 2021.” Global oil demand is now expected to reach 96.4 million b/d in 2021.
Shortage in the oil market
The OPEC+ agreement, according to which the participating countries are reducing oil production, brought the market from a state of the highest surplus in June 2020 to a state of deficit in September 2021.
“Since the historic peak in June 2020, global oil reserves have significantly decreased. As of the end of 2021, they fell by 938 million barrels for all types of fuel,” the report says.
At the same time, the reserves of the OECD countries in June 2020 exceeded the five-year average by 270 million barrels. But already in September 2021, there was a deficit of 160 million barrels in this segment in relation to the five-year average. This became possible “thanks to the OPEC+ agreement, which is aimed at stabilizing the oil market and increasing the loading of refineries,” the report notes.
At the same time, in September, according to preliminary data, OECD reserves increased by 18.5 million barrels, to 2.805 billion barrels. At this level, they were 374 million barrels lower than a year ago and 206 million barrels below the five-year average.
Oil supply growth
The supply of oil from non-OPEC countries in 2022 will grow by 3 million barrels per day (b/d). Thus, OPEC did not change the previous estimate. The main contribution to this growth will be made by Russia and the United States, it follows from the report.
“It is expected that the main drivers of growth next year will be Russia and the United States, whose growth rates will amount to 1 million and 0.9 million b/d, respectively. They will be followed by Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan, Norway, Guyana, and other countries,” the report says.
At the same time, in 2021, the supply from non-OPEC countries will increase by only 0.7 million b/d, this estimate also remained unchanged. The volume of non-OPEC oil supply in 2021 is expected to be 63.6 million b/d.
In 2021, Canada, Russia, China, Norway, Brazil, and Guyana are also the main drivers of oil production growth.