According to American sources, Russia has already concentrated 70% of the resources needed for a full-scale invasion.

Russia continues to redeploy additional tactical groups to the Ukrainian border, two American officials said. Over the past two weeks, the number of battalion tactical groups in the border region has increased from 60 to 83. Another 14 groups are on the way, Reuters reports, citing American representatives who shared the information on condition of anonymity.

As for the timing of the invasion, according to sources, it is expected that weather conditions will allow the Russian military to carry out mechanized off-road operations from February 15 to the end of March. This suggests that the window for diplomatic efforts is gradually closing.

U.S. officials have not provided evidence to support their estimates of the size of Russian forces.

Russia has already concentrated more than 100,000 troops near the Ukrainian border, but still says it does not plan an invasion, but may take unspecified military measures if its security requirements are not met. These demands, as you know, include NATO’s promise never to accept Ukraine as a member of the alliance. Washington and Brussels consider this requirement unacceptable.

The United States believes that Russia may choose other options besides a full-scale invasion, including a limited invasion, and does not believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin has made a final decision.

According to American sources, Russia is potentially capable of capturing the capital of Ukraine – Kyiv within two days, which will lead to heavy casualties. Ukraine may lose from 5 to 25 thousand troops, while the losses of Russian troops may be from 3 to 10 thousand troops. According to U.S. estimates, civilian casualties in Ukraine may reach 25-50 thousand people, while millions of civilians will find themselves in the position of refugees.