The epidemiologist admitted: the coronavirus pandemic is closer to the beginning than to the end

The expert called the Delta variant the most contagious virus in history.

A well-known epidemiologist claims that the world is “closer to the beginning than to the end” of the COVID-19 pandemic and warns that the Indian variant of Delta has become “perhaps the most contagious virus” in history.

The coronavirus pandemic is far from over due to the lack of enough vaccines for every country in the world, warns a well-known epidemiologist, the Daily Mail. Dr. Larry Brilliant, who worked as a doctor in the World Health Organization (WHO) smallpox eradication program, says that not enough people worldwide have been vaccinated against COVID-19.

The expert said that only 15 percent of people in the world had been vaccinated, and in some countries, even five percent of residents have not been vaccinated.

Dr. Brilliant also spoke about the spread of the Delta coronavirus variant discovered for the first time in India, admitting that it is the most contagious variant he has ever seen in his career.

“I think we are closer to the beginning than to the end of the pandemic, and not because the Delta option that we are considering now will last so long,” Diamond told. – If we don’t vaccinate everyone in more than 200 countries, new options will still appear.”

The world has been struggling to contain the Delta variant since it was first discovered in September 2020 in the Indian state of Maharashtra, which is the second-most populous state in this country. The Indian health authorities have called this variant a “double mutant” because it carries two mutations: L452R and E484Q. Both mutations occur in key parts of the virus, which allows it to enter human cells and infect them.

The Delta variant, including its subtypes, currently accounts for more than 90 percent of all new COVID-19 cases in the US.

“This new variant, the Delta variant, is different,” Dr. Brilliant said. – When we spoke with you earlier, we were not dealing with a virus whose incubation period was three and a half days, and each case would lead to the appearance of eight more with exponential growth. This is probably the most contagious virus that we have ever seen in living memory.”

However, Dr. Brilliant said that the vaccines approved in the United States – Pfizer-BioNTech, Modern, and Johnson & Johnson – help prevent serious illness and death cases for those infected with Delta coronavirus.

Meanwhile, in India, where this particularly contagious variant was detected, the average daily rate of COVID-19 diseases decreased to about 40 thousand cases after a peak of 391 thousand cases on May 9.

Some experts predict that the United States, which on average registers 100 thousand new cases per day, will also decrease the incidence.

Dr. Larry Brilliant believes that the Delta variant probably infects people so quickly that it runs out of people to whom it could spread in a few weeks. “Our models … They also predict an inverted V-shaped curve of the epidemic, which will grow very quickly and decrease very quickly,” the expert said. – This disease is so contagious and infects everyone so quickly that even if some vaccinated people are also infected, they quickly run out of candidates for infection. This may mean that this is a six-month phenomenon in the country and not a two-year phenomenon. But I warn people that this is a variant of Delta, and we haven’t run out of Greek letters yet, so maybe that’s not all.”

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Author: Ivan Maltsev
The study of political and social problems of different countries of the world. Analysis of large companies on the world market. Observing world leaders in the political arena.
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Ivan Maltsev

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