Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the fund, named famine in Africa, rising energy prices and an increase in the inflation rate among the possible consequences of the conflict.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) does not currently believe that the situation around Ukraine can lead to a global financial crisis, although the consequences will affect a number of countries. This opinion was expressed by the Managing Director of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva on Sunday on CBS television.
“No,” she said, answering the relevant question. – I can say what we are observing at the moment. We are lowering forecasts for global GDP growth in 2022. For those countries that have recovered quickly after the coronavirus crisis, this growth will be positive, but for laggards, the consequences will be more severe.”
The head of the IMF among the possible consequences of the Ukrainian crisis called famine in Africa, rising prices for energy, fertilizers and metals, as well as an increase in inflation. “We are talking about the United States and developing countries like Mexico and Brazil,” Georgieva added.
Impact of the crisis
Georgieva is concerned about the impact of the crisis in Ukraine on the rest of the world, in particular the situation with energy and inflation. “I am concerned that there are consequences that go beyond [limits] Ukraine and Russia,” she said.
According to her, the Fund is particularly concerned about the possible impact of the crisis on the countries of Central Asia, Transcaucasia and Moldova, which “have more [close] trade relations with both Russia and Ukraine than with the rest of the world.”
“The impact is very serious. As for influence, apart from the immediate neighbors of Russia and Ukraine, we can distinguish two groups of countries that cause great concern,” the head of the Fund noted. – The first group: countries that have not yet recovered from the economic crisis caused by the coronavirus. For them, this shock is especially painful. The second group is the states most dependent on energy imports from Russia. This is an impact not only on consumption, but also on inflation, which is becoming more pronounced.”
In the January report, the IMF worsened the forecast for world GDP growth this year by 0.5 percentage points (pp) compared to its October estimates. As the fund’s analysts believed at the time, this year the growth rate of world GDP would be 4.4%, in the October forecast this figure was 4.9%. In 2023, the IMF expected growth of 3.8%. In 2021, according to the calculations of the fund’s analysts, the global economy grew by 5.9%.